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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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