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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL COAL SUPPLY CHAIN TO HIT $115 BN IN 2022, LED BY CHINA AND INDIA - BUSINESS LINE
At over $80 billion, China and India are anticipated to make up the bulk of global coal investment in 2022, says IEA.
The investment ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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