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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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