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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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