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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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