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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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