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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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