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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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