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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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