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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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