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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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