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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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