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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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