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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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