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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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