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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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