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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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