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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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