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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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