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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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