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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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