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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) – 40% of the pipeline’s overall capacity. The European gas market has reacted, with prices down by 5%; but the stability of Russian gas flows is by no means a given, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie.
Penny Leake, Research Analyst for Europe Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Further disruptions are expected as Russia seeks to increase political and economic pressure on Europe as winter approaches.”
“It remains unclear what Russia will do. There is a risk that Nord Stream flows will reduce below the 40% capacity seen before the maintenance,” Leake added.
This way, Russia will continue receiving revenues from gas exports, disincentivising the much-needed early gas rationing recommended across Europe, thus exposing countries across the continent to more pressure this winter.
Wood Mackenzie has defined two scenarios for what may come for Russian gas flows and their impact on Europe in the coming months.
Scenario 1: Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity
If Nord Stream flows remain at 40% of capacity and imports through other routes remain at the levels seen since 17 June (before Nord Stream maintenance), Europe will be able to refill storage to more than 80% by 1 November 2022.
Leake said: “Gas demand is expected to be 12% lower than previous winters, due to high prices and demand mitigation measures, including the re-introduction of old coal plants, and Wood Mackenzie anticipates Europe will be able to get through the heating season with a comfortable level of storage under normal weather conditions.”
A cold winter in both Europe and Asia could however result in up to 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) of additional demand (7% of total) and reduce availability of LNG for Europe. This could bring storage levels down to approximately 10 bcm by the end of March 2023 – the minimum level Wood Mackenzie analysis indicates is required to ensure appropriate functioning of storage facilities.
“As a result, some limited demand curtailment may be required to manage peak demand episodes, unless additional supply is secured,” Leake added.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream flows reduce to zero, but Russian flows through other routes continue
If Nord Stream flows reduce to zero by August this year, Europe will only be able to refill its storage to 70-75% by the start of winter, and could finish the heating season with only approx. 10 bcm of gas in storage, risking some demand curtailments.
However, if winter is unusually cold in Europe and Asia, there is a risk gas in storage could run out by the end of February 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. With Europe risking as much as 20 bcm of demand curtailments – the equivalent of 7% of total gas demand or 30-35% of all industrial demand in winter.
Leake said: “Under these conditions, the only material upside that could limit demand curtailments would be bringing back production at Groningen – which brings with it political challenges.”
In all scenarios, the impact will differ by countries. The ones most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe, will be most exposed.
“One thing is clear – volatility and uncertainty will persist, meaning that demand and solidarity measures across Europe are required now so we can avoid leaving European gas balance to chance,” Leake concluded.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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