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Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall of gas flows to Europe from Russia, resulting in whipsaw patterns in gas prices in the EU/US.
The EU/US Taskforce to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas held a meeting on June 14th, planning further US LNG exports to the EU, amidst a flurry of commercial activity due to the recent fire at the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas, which initiated on the 8th of June. Officials said, during the previous week, that damage from the fire at its Texas plant would keep it fully offline until September with only partial operation through year-end. Following the news of the extended shutdown, natural gas prices slumped in the United States and soared in Europe.
The closure came as pipeline supplies from Europe’s top providers are also capped. For instance, key facilities in Norway have been undergoing annual maintenance, while Russia’s supplies are below capacity after several European buyers were cut off for refusing to meet Moscow’s demands to be ultimately paid in rubles for its pipeline fuel. Russian gas supply to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline fell further on June 16th, and Moscow said more delays in repairs could lead to suspending all flows, putting a brake on Europe’s race to refill its gas inventories. Russia clearly steps up the use of energy as a weapon, prompting Germany to accuse Kremlin of trying to drive up prices. There is a very real probability that European conventional storage will start the new withdrawal period with low stocks again, indicating tightness in LNG and gas markets lasts well into 2023.
More specifically TTF closed at $84.400MMBtu on June 1st, but following the fire news, it marked at climbed to $91.550MMBtu intraweek. Last week it was traded up to $148.745 MMBtu on June 16th, marking an intamonth high, after the cut in gas flows from Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
Key underlying drivers in bringing LNG prices together are weak demand in North Asia, the world's main consuming region, amidst the latest lockdown in China, as well as strong demand in Europe due to the policy pivot towards LNG and away from dependence on Russian pipeline gas. The wave of new supply additions to the global LNG market seen during 2015-2020 is slowing down considerably and considering minimal growth during 2020 and 2021, supply seems to be outstripped by demand. Supply will most likely remain curbed, while Gazprom’s CEO is warning that there is no solution at the moment for issues with gas turbines, essential for the pipeline’s functioning. That said, refilling of storage tanks for the winter when demand typically peaks is threatened. With European gas supplies being already squeezed and on the back of a dearth of gas supplies for the coming winter, a return to coal now seems the only viable option for EU countries.
While gas demand in China will remain the engine of global LNG growth, disruptions in new LNG production out of the US which was set out to be the key to global balance over 2022, form the main market indicators which are pointing in the same direction and they are, undoubtedly, signaling a supply/demand imbalance that will continue to nibble sentiment in the short term.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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