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Wednesday, 29 June 22
LNG MARKET REMAINS TIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG market remains tight currently, mainly driven by the US LNG outage from the recent fire in Freeport LNG terminal together with the recent fall of gas flows to Europe from Russia, resulting in whipsaw patterns in gas prices in the EU/US.
The EU/US Taskforce to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas held a meeting on June 14th, planning further US LNG exports to the EU, amidst a flurry of commercial activity due to the recent fire at the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas, which initiated on the 8th of June. Officials said, during the previous week, that damage from the fire at its Texas plant would keep it fully offline until September with only partial operation through year-end. Following the news of the extended shutdown, natural gas prices slumped in the United States and soared in Europe.
The closure came as pipeline supplies from Europe’s top providers are also capped. For instance, key facilities in Norway have been undergoing annual maintenance, while Russia’s supplies are below capacity after several European buyers were cut off for refusing to meet Moscow’s demands to be ultimately paid in rubles for its pipeline fuel. Russian gas supply to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline fell further on June 16th, and Moscow said more delays in repairs could lead to suspending all flows, putting a brake on Europe’s race to refill its gas inventories. Russia clearly steps up the use of energy as a weapon, prompting Germany to accuse Kremlin of trying to drive up prices. There is a very real probability that European conventional storage will start the new withdrawal period with low stocks again, indicating tightness in LNG and gas markets lasts well into 2023.
More specifically TTF closed at $84.400MMBtu on June 1st, but following the fire news, it marked at climbed to $91.550MMBtu intraweek. Last week it was traded up to $148.745 MMBtu on June 16th, marking an intamonth high, after the cut in gas flows from Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
Key underlying drivers in bringing LNG prices together are weak demand in North Asia, the world's main consuming region, amidst the latest lockdown in China, as well as strong demand in Europe due to the policy pivot towards LNG and away from dependence on Russian pipeline gas. The wave of new supply additions to the global LNG market seen during 2015-2020 is slowing down considerably and considering minimal growth during 2020 and 2021, supply seems to be outstripped by demand. Supply will most likely remain curbed, while Gazprom’s CEO is warning that there is no solution at the moment for issues with gas turbines, essential for the pipeline’s functioning. That said, refilling of storage tanks for the winter when demand typically peaks is threatened. With European gas supplies being already squeezed and on the back of a dearth of gas supplies for the coming winter, a return to coal now seems the only viable option for EU countries.
While gas demand in China will remain the engine of global LNG growth, disruptions in new LNG production out of the US which was set out to be the key to global balance over 2022, form the main market indicators which are pointing in the same direction and they are, undoubtedly, signaling a supply/demand imbalance that will continue to nibble sentiment in the short term.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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