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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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