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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- The University of Queensland
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Australian Coal Association
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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