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Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels were noticed back in February 2021.
BDI started to deflate after reaching the highest level since 2008 during the first week of October 2021. An uptick in the index was observed during the first week of December, but the downward trend resumed thereafter and was exacerbated after the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia imposed a coal export ban on the first day of the new year for the month of January. The index dropped to 1,644 today, representing a -71% decrease to the Q4 peak, dropping below the levels seen during the 2nd half of January 2021, mainly due to underperformance of the Capesize market.
In detail, starting from the Handysize index (BHSI) and comparing January 2022 to January 2021, we stand at higher levels with the index at 1,162 points as of today, +78% y-o-y. The Supramax index also stands +68% above last year’s levels currently at 1,840, while the Panamax index stands +37% above last year at 2,223. Lastly, the BCI is the only index currently performing lower compared to last year, settling today at 1,316 -54% below the same period last year.
This is the seasonally low quarter for the dry bulk market, during which Capesize exhibits the lowest relative performance due to its big dependence on iron ore flows, which are underperform during this time of year. An increase in vessels’ supply in the Pacific due to the Indonesian coal export ban has cannibalized earnings in the basin for all sizes, with the largest hit the most due to underperforming iron ore flows to which it largely depends. However, our lead analyst views current market conditions as a buying opportunity for the sector, which is expected to resume its upward trend during the second quarter of this year, with the geared segment likely to outperform during 1H 2022.
For the time being, with the Chinese New Year in less than two weeks from now and the Winter Olympics following, one could say that shipowners are temporizing their movements until the market shows its real potential, hence the number of deals in the dry SnP side is limited these days. YTD 2022 we have observed approx. 16 deals, and although we are halfway through the month, the trend lags by approx. 4 times the deals observed during full January 2021, when the market had shown signs of a countercyclical freight increase emerging, which finally led to a quarter that had defied seasonality.
By Mohamed Rabie,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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