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Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels were noticed back in February 2021.
BDI started to deflate after reaching the highest level since 2008 during the first week of October 2021. An uptick in the index was observed during the first week of December, but the downward trend resumed thereafter and was exacerbated after the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia imposed a coal export ban on the first day of the new year for the month of January. The index dropped to 1,644 today, representing a -71% decrease to the Q4 peak, dropping below the levels seen during the 2nd half of January 2021, mainly due to underperformance of the Capesize market.
In detail, starting from the Handysize index (BHSI) and comparing January 2022 to January 2021, we stand at higher levels with the index at 1,162 points as of today, +78% y-o-y. The Supramax index also stands +68% above last year’s levels currently at 1,840, while the Panamax index stands +37% above last year at 2,223. Lastly, the BCI is the only index currently performing lower compared to last year, settling today at 1,316 -54% below the same period last year.
This is the seasonally low quarter for the dry bulk market, during which Capesize exhibits the lowest relative performance due to its big dependence on iron ore flows, which are underperform during this time of year. An increase in vessels’ supply in the Pacific due to the Indonesian coal export ban has cannibalized earnings in the basin for all sizes, with the largest hit the most due to underperforming iron ore flows to which it largely depends. However, our lead analyst views current market conditions as a buying opportunity for the sector, which is expected to resume its upward trend during the second quarter of this year, with the geared segment likely to outperform during 1H 2022.
For the time being, with the Chinese New Year in less than two weeks from now and the Winter Olympics following, one could say that shipowners are temporizing their movements until the market shows its real potential, hence the number of deals in the dry SnP side is limited these days. YTD 2022 we have observed approx. 16 deals, and although we are halfway through the month, the trend lags by approx. 4 times the deals observed during full January 2021, when the market had shown signs of a countercyclical freight increase emerging, which finally led to a quarter that had defied seasonality.
By Mohamed Rabie,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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