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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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