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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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