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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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