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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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