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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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