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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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