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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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