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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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