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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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