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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
...
Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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