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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
 U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soared in international markets. These high prices should significantly boost revenues and profits at coal mining companies—a remarkable turnaround from just a year ago, when the world’s pandemic-induced economic swoon sent export prices and demand tumbling.
Yet by most measures—including coal production, consumption for electric power, mining jobs and coming coal-plant retirements—the sector will barely rebound to 2019 levels, a far more telling comparison than to 2020, the worst year for U.S. coal in decades.
U.S. coal production
Take U.S. coal production, the broadest measure of the industry’s condition. This year’s output is expected to be 588 million tons, up 10% from 2020’s 535 million tons, according to October’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration. That seems like a decent rebound, but it’s actually 118 million tons lower than in 2019, and, other than 2020, would be the lowest since 1971.
Coal use for electric power
Coal use for electric power is up over last year, too. The EIA’s latest outlook expects an 84-million-ton, or 19%, increase, to 521 million tons, compared with the 437 million tons used in 2020. Once again, this appears to be a substantial recovery—except that it’s lower than 2019’s 539 million tons. This is significant because more than 90% of the coal consumed in the U.S. is used to generate electricity.
This poor recovery in coal use looks even worse considering the price of natural gas rose 83% from $2.47 per thousand cubic feet in the third quarter of 2019 to $4.53 in the third quarter of this year. And, as IEEFA has noted about the energy transition in U.S. electricity markets, coal and gas together have not gained market share, and are instead continuing to lose ground to renewables. This is a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future, given the ongoing construction boom in utility-scale solar and wind. If anything, high prices for coal and gas, if sustained, are likely to cause the switch to renewables to accelerate.
Coal’s domestic market continues to shrink, too. More than 80GW of coal-plant retirements—more than one-third of the current operating capacity—are already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2030. IEEFA estimates these units used 166 million tons of coal in 2019, which would cut demand to about 375 million tons by the end of the decade, and this does not account for any new retirement announcements that could be made. On top of this, the remaining coal plants are likely to run less and less. EIA data shows the capacity factor for coal plants (a measure of how much of their generating potential is actually used) fell from 62.8% in 2011 to just 40.2% in 2020. IEEFA estimates that even a modest decline in capacity factors at the plants expected to operate after 2030 could result in a further loss of more than 80 million tons, bringing the total drop in coal demand from the U.S. power sector to about 250 million tons. In other words, coal’s largest U.S. market could shrink as much as 50% in just nine years.
U.S. coal mining jobs continue to decline
Another sign that coal mining isn’t recovering is the scale and timing of job losses. Nearly 24,000 jobs have been cut—a 29% decline—since 2019, when an average of 81,478 people were working for either coal-mine operators or contractors. This includes a loss of more than 6,100 jobs between 2020 and the first half of 2021, according to the latest figures from the Mine Safety and Health Administration, leaving just 57,497 workers in coal mining. That’s just half the number employed as recently as 2014.
Exports
With surging prices for coal in international markets—a complete turnaround from a year ago—coal exports should be a bright spot for American producers. No doubt for the companies that are exporting, there will be a significant boost to their bottom lines, because volumes are set to grow by 34% this year compared with 2020, to 92.6 million tons. Yet even here, this only returns exports to the 2019 level of 93.8 million tons, and the EIA outlook sees almost no further growth in 2022, when it expects 94.8 million tons to be sold abroad.
It is not surprising that coal has staged at least some comeback over 2020—by many measures the worst year for the industry in decades. What is surprising is that the rebound has fallen short of even 2019 in the critical measures of production, consumption by the power sector and jobs. This year’s high coal prices are likely to improve the weak finances at many mining companies, at least temporarily, but they won’t change the sector’s long-term decline. If anything, the high cost of coal is making the economics of switching to lower-cost renewables and storage even more compelling, and could result in utilities and other power producers accelerating their shift away from using coal.
By Seth Feaster
Data Analyst
IEEFA Energy
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Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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