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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
 U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soared in international markets. These high prices should significantly boost revenues and profits at coal mining companies—a remarkable turnaround from just a year ago, when the world’s pandemic-induced economic swoon sent export prices and demand tumbling.
Yet by most measures—including coal production, consumption for electric power, mining jobs and coming coal-plant retirements—the sector will barely rebound to 2019 levels, a far more telling comparison than to 2020, the worst year for U.S. coal in decades.
U.S. coal production
Take U.S. coal production, the broadest measure of the industry’s condition. This year’s output is expected to be 588 million tons, up 10% from 2020’s 535 million tons, according to October’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration. That seems like a decent rebound, but it’s actually 118 million tons lower than in 2019, and, other than 2020, would be the lowest since 1971.
Coal use for electric power
Coal use for electric power is up over last year, too. The EIA’s latest outlook expects an 84-million-ton, or 19%, increase, to 521 million tons, compared with the 437 million tons used in 2020. Once again, this appears to be a substantial recovery—except that it’s lower than 2019’s 539 million tons. This is significant because more than 90% of the coal consumed in the U.S. is used to generate electricity.
This poor recovery in coal use looks even worse considering the price of natural gas rose 83% from $2.47 per thousand cubic feet in the third quarter of 2019 to $4.53 in the third quarter of this year. And, as IEEFA has noted about the energy transition in U.S. electricity markets, coal and gas together have not gained market share, and are instead continuing to lose ground to renewables. This is a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future, given the ongoing construction boom in utility-scale solar and wind. If anything, high prices for coal and gas, if sustained, are likely to cause the switch to renewables to accelerate.
Coal’s domestic market continues to shrink, too. More than 80GW of coal-plant retirements—more than one-third of the current operating capacity—are already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2030. IEEFA estimates these units used 166 million tons of coal in 2019, which would cut demand to about 375 million tons by the end of the decade, and this does not account for any new retirement announcements that could be made. On top of this, the remaining coal plants are likely to run less and less. EIA data shows the capacity factor for coal plants (a measure of how much of their generating potential is actually used) fell from 62.8% in 2011 to just 40.2% in 2020. IEEFA estimates that even a modest decline in capacity factors at the plants expected to operate after 2030 could result in a further loss of more than 80 million tons, bringing the total drop in coal demand from the U.S. power sector to about 250 million tons. In other words, coal’s largest U.S. market could shrink as much as 50% in just nine years.
U.S. coal mining jobs continue to decline
Another sign that coal mining isn’t recovering is the scale and timing of job losses. Nearly 24,000 jobs have been cut—a 29% decline—since 2019, when an average of 81,478 people were working for either coal-mine operators or contractors. This includes a loss of more than 6,100 jobs between 2020 and the first half of 2021, according to the latest figures from the Mine Safety and Health Administration, leaving just 57,497 workers in coal mining. That’s just half the number employed as recently as 2014.
Exports
With surging prices for coal in international markets—a complete turnaround from a year ago—coal exports should be a bright spot for American producers. No doubt for the companies that are exporting, there will be a significant boost to their bottom lines, because volumes are set to grow by 34% this year compared with 2020, to 92.6 million tons. Yet even here, this only returns exports to the 2019 level of 93.8 million tons, and the EIA outlook sees almost no further growth in 2022, when it expects 94.8 million tons to be sold abroad.
It is not surprising that coal has staged at least some comeback over 2020—by many measures the worst year for the industry in decades. What is surprising is that the rebound has fallen short of even 2019 in the critical measures of production, consumption by the power sector and jobs. This year’s high coal prices are likely to improve the weak finances at many mining companies, at least temporarily, but they won’t change the sector’s long-term decline. If anything, the high cost of coal is making the economics of switching to lower-cost renewables and storage even more compelling, and could result in utilities and other power producers accelerating their shift away from using coal.
By Seth Feaster
Data Analyst
IEEFA Energy
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Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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