We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to see that dry bulk Q4 high seasonality has returned after at least 3 years of underperformance, driving also the Q4’21 and Q1’22 FFA curve to multi year highs. Back in May, we had explained why we thought a higher Cape market peak during 2H2021 was in the cards, with fundamentals recently being boosted by accelerating restocking demand, near record high Capesize congestion at Pacific discharge ports and a global energy supply deficit leading to scrambling for coal supplies globally. In the present insight, we are briefly addressing some of the market points that are likely to impact the direction of freight rates looking forward.
Iron Ore restocking to be in full swing during Q4 regardless of China’s crude steel production contraction. Q1 2022 Risks: Slow-down in construction during winter and in view of China’s Winter Olympics, exacerbated by high energy costs. China’s property developers slowing down land purchases amid deleveraging efforts
The primary force behind the crude steel production decline in the short term is the severe coking coal /coke and power shortage forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards. Cuts are expected to intensify from November 15th to the end of the year as a 1st stage and then through March 2022, as per government’s pledges. Even if most of the targeted steel production cuts materializes through Sep-Dec 2021, probabilities that they will immediately translate into a decline in iron ore requirements are low, as 1) the iron ore restocking process is directly connected to iron ore seaborne supplies which are the strongest during Q4 – the decline in iron ore prices from multi year highs in May 2021 is currently facilitating the restocking process supporting the purchasing power of steel mills – steel mills margins remain strong due to the diverging trends in steel and iron ore prices, despite the surge in coking coal costs 2) Skyrocketing energy costs are likely to negatively impact more the scrap related steel production process during the quarter (Electric Arc Furnaces are higher energy consumers) vs Blast Furnaces (more iron ore requirements). When iron ore restocking will be completed, this will be a negative signal for new iron ore procurement, likely during the 1H2022. On this note, iron ore inventories at China’s ports have increased by +9.2 million tons since the end of Q2 and there is more room for them to inflate further by the end of the year.
Inflationary pressures on the energy complex supportive to dry bulk freight rates in the short-term. Q1 2022 Risks: La Nina conditions might bring a colder winter supporting coal consumption but also wetter conditions in Australia from December to April increasing risks of exports disruptions
Natural gas prices have raised the price ceiling higher for the whole energy complex and while international coal prices have hit record high levels, the price gap with natural gas continues to incentivize substitution in power generation globally and Europe particularly. The competition for securing coal supplies in both basins has inflated $ per ton freight across major coal routes to 12-year highs – which we think is sustainable - as the % of freight in coal prices is still low (approx. 13%) compared to 2009-2010 (approx. 22%).
China’s domestic coal output is expected to increase in the next months on a series of government measures to boost supplies, although the incremental volumes during Q4 are not expected to be sufficient to cover the supply deficit. The continuous decline in coal inventories at major power plants and expectations for a cold winter continue to indicate increasing thermal coal import needs for restocking in the winter heating season. Demand for coal imports is further enhanced by India’s urgency to restock as inventories at power plants have dropped to the lowest level since 2017 at 7.3 million tons but at a record low in terms of days of consumption i.e. just 4 days, as per latest data from India’s Central Electricity Authority.
High bunker prices are supportive to dry bulk freight rates as we had discussed in our May insight, likely to exacerbate fleet inefficiencies across the basins, with the Atlantic expected to benefit more in the short term. Talks about demand destruction from high oil prices will be substantiated when manufacturers’ profitability and consumers’ purchasing power starts to be negatively impacted with costs curves rising upwards. This is likely to take place at higher prices than the current $80/bbl in our view and those would have to be sustained during the quarter.
By Tamara Apostolou, Research Director
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
|
|
|
Showing 36 to 40 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
