We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to see that dry bulk Q4 high seasonality has returned after at least 3 years of underperformance, driving also the Q4’21 and Q1’22 FFA curve to multi year highs. Back in May, we had explained why we thought a higher Cape market peak during 2H2021 was in the cards, with fundamentals recently being boosted by accelerating restocking demand, near record high Capesize congestion at Pacific discharge ports and a global energy supply deficit leading to scrambling for coal supplies globally. In the present insight, we are briefly addressing some of the market points that are likely to impact the direction of freight rates looking forward.
Iron Ore restocking to be in full swing during Q4 regardless of China’s crude steel production contraction. Q1 2022 Risks: Slow-down in construction during winter and in view of China’s Winter Olympics, exacerbated by high energy costs. China’s property developers slowing down land purchases amid deleveraging efforts
The primary force behind the crude steel production decline in the short term is the severe coking coal /coke and power shortage forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards. Cuts are expected to intensify from November 15th to the end of the year as a 1st stage and then through March 2022, as per government’s pledges. Even if most of the targeted steel production cuts materializes through Sep-Dec 2021, probabilities that they will immediately translate into a decline in iron ore requirements are low, as 1) the iron ore restocking process is directly connected to iron ore seaborne supplies which are the strongest during Q4 – the decline in iron ore prices from multi year highs in May 2021 is currently facilitating the restocking process supporting the purchasing power of steel mills – steel mills margins remain strong due to the diverging trends in steel and iron ore prices, despite the surge in coking coal costs 2) Skyrocketing energy costs are likely to negatively impact more the scrap related steel production process during the quarter (Electric Arc Furnaces are higher energy consumers) vs Blast Furnaces (more iron ore requirements). When iron ore restocking will be completed, this will be a negative signal for new iron ore procurement, likely during the 1H2022. On this note, iron ore inventories at China’s ports have increased by +9.2 million tons since the end of Q2 and there is more room for them to inflate further by the end of the year.
Inflationary pressures on the energy complex supportive to dry bulk freight rates in the short-term. Q1 2022 Risks: La Nina conditions might bring a colder winter supporting coal consumption but also wetter conditions in Australia from December to April increasing risks of exports disruptions
Natural gas prices have raised the price ceiling higher for the whole energy complex and while international coal prices have hit record high levels, the price gap with natural gas continues to incentivize substitution in power generation globally and Europe particularly. The competition for securing coal supplies in both basins has inflated $ per ton freight across major coal routes to 12-year highs – which we think is sustainable - as the % of freight in coal prices is still low (approx. 13%) compared to 2009-2010 (approx. 22%).
China’s domestic coal output is expected to increase in the next months on a series of government measures to boost supplies, although the incremental volumes during Q4 are not expected to be sufficient to cover the supply deficit. The continuous decline in coal inventories at major power plants and expectations for a cold winter continue to indicate increasing thermal coal import needs for restocking in the winter heating season. Demand for coal imports is further enhanced by India’s urgency to restock as inventories at power plants have dropped to the lowest level since 2017 at 7.3 million tons but at a record low in terms of days of consumption i.e. just 4 days, as per latest data from India’s Central Electricity Authority.
High bunker prices are supportive to dry bulk freight rates as we had discussed in our May insight, likely to exacerbate fleet inefficiencies across the basins, with the Atlantic expected to benefit more in the short term. Talks about demand destruction from high oil prices will be substantiated when manufacturers’ profitability and consumers’ purchasing power starts to be negatively impacted with costs curves rising upwards. This is likely to take place at higher prices than the current $80/bbl in our view and those would have to be sustained during the quarter.
By Tamara Apostolou, Research Director
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
|
|
|
Showing 46 to 50 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
|
| |
| |
|
