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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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