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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- The University of Queensland
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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