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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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