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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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