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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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