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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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