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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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