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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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