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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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