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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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