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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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