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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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