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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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