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Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of uncertainty regarding eco-friendly technology adoption which amplified concerns over the technology and fuelling choices on the newbuilding units. Covid-19 restrictions significantly impacted owners’ appetite for new orders, which coupled with the divided view on the long-term technology implementation caused a severe blow on the shipbuilding industry. At the time of writing, both concerns are still present.
Despite worldwide vaccination, the pandemic remains with lockdown restrictions being imposed around the world. In addition, there is no clear view on which type of fuel will be the next generation one, yet with LNG retrofits gaining a bigger market share week by week. However, today the shipbuilding tanker market activity witness a completely different outlook, with the volume of newbuilding contracts emerging w-o-w being significantly strong and the NB values at levels that we last observed back in 2015. With respect to the latter fact, we could agree that the recent spike in steel prices has supported a large part of newbuilding value increases; nevertheless, with the cost for new investments burdening the owner’s capital, it is evident that the appetite for new vessels is strong.
According to our preliminary data, YTD crude carriers contracting activity in dwt terms is estimated at around 9.6 million which is about +47.7% when compared to the same period last year (6.5 million dwt). The majority of orders that have materialized so far this year referred to VLCC units which account for 71% of the total orders (27 of the total tanker contracting activity of 38 units). If buying interest for crude carrier tonnage continues at the same pace it would not be a surprise to see 2021 contracting activity doubling the previous year volumes (around 15.4 million in dwt terms during 2020). Solely for the purpose of comparison, 2019 total contracting activity is estimated at around 19.6 million dwt with January-May 2019 newbuilding volume at 7.45 million dwt, a time period where the Coronavirus pandemic would stand as a science fiction theory.
As far as the asset values are concerned, average prices for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units to be constructed at top tier yards are estimated at $95.0M, $63.M, and $50.5 million respectively. A picture is worth a thousand words and that can be evident if we take a closer look at page 6 Indicative Newbuilding Prices table where a comparison with average values of the past 3 years can easily be made. Average prices of all sectors are hovering well below today’s values. Again, for the sake of clarity, 2021 average VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax newbuilding prices stand at $90.0M, $59.5M, and $49.0 million. It remains to be seen, whether Chinese authorities will manage to curb iron ore prices and subsequently steel values. Such a depreciation on the respective commodities will be reflected on newbuilding values as well; however, if China’s exertion in containing steel prices remains unsuccessful newbuilding prices will appreciate further according to the underlying steel inflationary trend.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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